Grand Remplacement
Around 30 percent of the Russian population will practice Islam within the next 15 years, Russia’s grand mufti has predicted, citing demographic trends. (Ravil Gainutdin)
Archpriest Dmitry Smirnov, an official in Russia’s Orthodox Church, agreed with Gainutdin’s forecast and predicted that “there won't be any Russians left in 2050.”
“It’s too late,” he told the Govorit Moskva radio station when asked if the demographic trend could be reversed.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/03/05/russia-will-be-one-third-muslim-in-15-years-chief-mufti-predicts-a64706
Kyoko
The Russians native population is declining with a massive speed. There is a Chechnya and a migration from South states
K
If less than 2.0 then it means their population is divided by 2 each generation...
90% could become 60% in less than 30 years.
Theo
It wouldn’t be a massive issue in different times, but for this time period, being so low entails a replacement in the future, surely.
K
It is a problem If you have a welfare state.
Because if you have a welfare state and a below-2.0 birth rate, then people will accept immigration to compensate the lacking births to pay their retirement etc.
Theo
Well, I can say, that most cases in the past of rapidly declining populace followed by peaceful replacement, occurred after periods of war wherein the people like lost initiative and confidences. The most important example that comes up to my mind, is the replacement of an Elamite culture and society with that if a Persian one in the area of Anshan, during the X and IX centuries BCE
In terms of a demographic replacement without warfare
It began as just cohabitation and rapidly these Elamites were replaced and their entire living spaces reverted to that of a ‘Persian’ style in only a century.
This occurred as many scholars point out, via devastation from war and a theorized drop in rates of birth/fertility amongst the Elamites. Leading to their demographic replacement
Archpriest Dmitry Smirnov, an official in Russia’s Orthodox Church, agreed with Gainutdin’s forecast and predicted that “there won't be any Russians left in 2050.”
“It’s too late,” he told the Govorit Moskva radio station when asked if the demographic trend could be reversed.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/03/05/russia-will-be-one-third-muslim-in-15-years-chief-mufti-predicts-a64706
Kyoko
The Russians native population is declining with a massive speed. There is a Chechnya and a migration from South states
K
If less than 2.0 then it means their population is divided by 2 each generation...
90% could become 60% in less than 30 years.
Theo
It wouldn’t be a massive issue in different times, but for this time period, being so low entails a replacement in the future, surely.
K
It is a problem If you have a welfare state.
Because if you have a welfare state and a below-2.0 birth rate, then people will accept immigration to compensate the lacking births to pay their retirement etc.
Theo
Well, I can say, that most cases in the past of rapidly declining populace followed by peaceful replacement, occurred after periods of war wherein the people like lost initiative and confidences. The most important example that comes up to my mind, is the replacement of an Elamite culture and society with that if a Persian one in the area of Anshan, during the X and IX centuries BCE
In terms of a demographic replacement without warfare
It began as just cohabitation and rapidly these Elamites were replaced and their entire living spaces reverted to that of a ‘Persian’ style in only a century.
This occurred as many scholars point out, via devastation from war and a theorized drop in rates of birth/fertility amongst the Elamites. Leading to their demographic replacement
Commentaires
Enregistrer un commentaire